Should I Accept a 98% Offer on My Surprise AZ Home?

Usually yes — though the right answer depends less on the headline number and more on three things: how long your home has been listed, what comparable homes are actually closing for in your subdivision, and what the rest of the offer looks like beyond price. In the current Surprise market, where sale-to-list ratios are sitting in the 97% range and many homes are taking price reductions before they get a single offer, 98% on a first offer is generally a strong starting point worth negotiating from rather than rejecting.

I get this question almost every week from Surprise sellers right now, and it's a fair one to wrestle with. Listing your home is emotional work. You priced it where you priced it for a reason. So when an offer comes in two percent lower than that, the instinct is to push back hard. The data says the instinct is wrong more often than it's right.

What 98% of Asking Actually Means in Surprise Today

The Surprise market has shifted noticeably from where it was a couple of years ago. Sale-to-list ratios across the city are running close to 97%, with about 60% of listings taking some kind of price reduction during their time on market. Median days on market are well over three months for many segments. That backdrop matters because it changes what "first offer at 98%" actually represents.

In a hot seller's market — the kind we had in 2021 and 2022 — a first offer at 98% would be a clear underbid because most sellers were getting full price or above with multiple competing offers. In today's Surprise market, a first offer at 98% is above the average closing ratio. You'd be saying no to a number that's better than where most homes are actually settling. That's a hard sell mathematically. The buyers writing offers right now are doing the same comp analysis you are — and they're calibrating to today's market, not yesterday's.

The Three Things That Should Drive Your Decision

Here's the framework I walk Surprise sellers through when this question comes up. There are exactly three variables that should drive whether you take a 98% offer, counter, or reject.

First: time on market. If you've been listed less than 14 days, you have more reason to counter at 99% or full price — early offers can sometimes signal you've underpriced. If you've been listed 30+ days, the math tilts toward acceptance. If you've already taken a reduction, this offer is the market's response to your reduced price, and rejecting it is a much bigger gamble than it feels like in the moment. Second: comparable closed sales. Pull the last 60 days of closes in your subdivision. If their sale-to-list ratios cluster around 96%–98%, your 98% offer is right at or above market. If they're mostly closing at full ask, your buyer is asking you to leave money on the table. Third: the non-price terms. Are they paying cash or financed? Conventional or FHA? What's their inspection contingency posture? Is the closing date workable? A 98% cash offer with no contingencies and a flexible close is materially different from a 98% offer with FHA financing, a long inspection period, and a tight close. Both deserve consideration, but they're not the same offer.

For sellers worried about handling the post-inspection conversation if you do accept, this guide on what to do when buyers come back asking for big price reductions after the inspection is worth reading before you sign. The inspection negotiation is often where 98% deals quietly become 96% deals — and it's avoidable with the right preparation up front.

The Counter Strategy That Usually Wins

What I watch for here is whether a seller is countering to negotiate or countering to protest. Those are different moves with very different outcomes. A negotiation counter at 99%–99.5% is reasonable and usually well-received — most buyers expect some movement. It signals you're engaged and willing to close. A protest counter back at full price tells the buyer you don't view their offer as serious, and a meaningful share of buyers in this market will simply walk and find another listing.

There's a saying in real estate that the first offer is often the best offer. It's a cliché because it's empirically true more often than not. The longer your home sits, the smaller your buyer pool gets. Buyers shopping today are looking at fresh listings — your home becomes harder to attract attention to with every additional week. Rejecting 98% to chase 100% later means accepting the risk that you take 95% three months from now after another reduction. Sometimes that bet pays off. Most of the time it doesn't, especially in a market where inventory is growing.

When the 98% Offer Is Actually Wrong for You

There are scenarios where rejecting or substantially countering a 98% offer makes sense. If your home is unique — a truly distinctive lot, a one-of-a-kind floor plan, or a price point with extremely thin comparable inventory — your home doesn't follow the citywide average, and you may have more leverage. If you've been listed less than a week and the offer feels rushed, you have time to see what else comes in. If the offer has problematic terms attached — long inspection windows, weak financing, unrealistic close dates — the price isn't the real issue, the terms are. In those cases, the right move is to counter on terms more than price.

But for a typical Surprise resale home that's been listed for two or three weeks, with closed comps suggesting market-level pricing, and a 98% offer that's clean on financing and timing — that's the offer you take or counter at 99%. The mistake I see most often isn't sellers accepting too quickly. It's sellers waiting for a better offer that doesn't come, then accepting a worse one six weeks later.

The Inspection Period Is Where 98% Becomes Real

Once you accept (or counter), the AAR contract gives the buyer a 10-day inspection period. This is where some sellers get blindsided. Buyers can come back asking for price reductions, repairs, or credits based on inspection findings — and that's where your 98% offer can get re-priced if you're not prepared. To avoid this, walk your home with fresh eyes before accepting any offer. Get small things fixed up front. Consider budgeting for repairs and prep before listing so the inspection doesn't surface surprises. The Arizona SPDS disclosure is your friend here — being transparent about known issues prevents inspection-period renegotiation more often than it creates objections.

For first-time sellers especially, the post-inspection negotiation is where most deals fall apart. Knowing your strategy before you accept the 98% offer protects the price you actually close at. The Arizona Association of Realtors contract reference has the official language on standard contract terms if you want to dig deeper into what's negotiable.

What "Accept" Should Actually Look Like

If you decide to accept or counter at 99%, do it cleanly. Respond quickly — within 24 hours when possible. Don't try to extract small additional concessions on top of the price counter; pick the one or two terms that actually matter to you (close date, possession, fixtures) and hold firm on those. Avoid back-and-forth that drags into multiple rounds. The cleanest negotiations close. The messiest ones quietly fall apart.

Surprise sellers right now have a real advantage they sometimes underestimate: motivated buyers who've been waiting. The buyer writing your 98% offer is often someone who's been watching your listing for weeks, has compared it to others, and decided yours is the right one. That's a real signal. Don't fumble the sale chasing a percentage point.

Bottom Line

A 98% first offer in today's Surprise market is, statistically, a strong offer. It's at or above where most homes actually close. Your decision shouldn't be driven by the percentage itself — it should be driven by your time on market, your comp data, and the rest of the offer's terms. Counter at 99% if the comps support it. Accept if they don't. Reject only if the home is genuinely unique or the terms are seriously off. The first offer is the best offer more often than sellers want to believe, and chasing a hypothetical better one in this market is the most common way I see Surprise sellers leave money on the table.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is 98% of asking a good offer in Surprise right now? Yes, generally. The current Surprise sale-to-list ratio is around 97%, so a 98% first offer is above market average and worth negotiating from rather than rejecting outright.

How long should I wait for a better offer before accepting 98%? If you've been listed 30+ days, the math favors accepting. If you've been listed less than 2 weeks and have showing activity, you have a little more room to wait or counter higher.

Should I always counter at full price? No. Countering at full price often signals to buyers you're not engaged and can cause them to walk. A counter at 99%–99.5% is more typical and keeps the negotiation moving forward.

Can the buyer back out after I accept the 98% offer? Yes, during the AAR 10-day inspection period and during financing contingencies. Buyers can renegotiate or cancel if inspection findings warrant it, which is why pre-listing prep matters.

What if the 98% offer comes with bad terms? Counter on the terms, not just the price. Long inspection windows, weak financing, or unrealistic close dates can be addressed in a counter without rejecting the deal entirely.

Closing Thought

The hardest part of selling in this market is letting go of the price you wanted in your head and meeting the price the market is offering. A 98% first offer is the market telling you something specific: a real buyer values your home approximately at where you priced it, with two points of negotiation room. That's not a lowball. That's a starting point. Most of the time, the right move is to counter once at 99%, accept, and protect the deal through inspection. Selling well in 2026 is a different game than it was three years ago — and the sellers who adjust their playbook are the ones who close cleanly.

About the Author

Kasandra Chavez is a real estate advisor serving the West Valley of Greater Phoenix, Arizona, recognized among the top 5% of real estate professionals in the Greater Phoenix area. She works with buyers and sellers to align strategy with lifestyle and financial goals, providing decision-making support through every stage of the transaction. Her focus is on protecting sellers through pricing, offer evaluation, and inspection negotiation so the price they accept is the price they actually close at.