Wait for D.R. Horton at Lucero or Buy a Goodyear Resale?

Should I wait to buy in Estrella's Lucero village, or choose an existing Goodyear resale home now?

If your move needs to happen inside the next two years, buy the resale. D.R. Horton's model homes at Lucero are expected in fall 2027, which means waiting is not waiting for Lucero — Lucero already sells new homes from several builders today. It is waiting roughly a year for one specific builder's product, while giving up the strongest buyer position Goodyear has offered in several years.

The headline that brought most people here reads like an opening: the nation's largest homebuilder just bought the last lots in Goodyear's newest Estrella village. It sounds like something is about to become available. What actually happened is the opposite — the final lots came off the market, and the homes on them are more than a year out.

That gap between how a land deal reads and what it delivers is where buyers lose time. So let me lay out what D.R. Horton actually bought, when you could realistically stand in one of those homes, and what a year of waiting costs in the Goodyear market as it sits right now.

When Will D.R. Horton's Lucero Homes at Estrella Be Available?

Model homes at Lucero are anticipated in fall 2027, with homeownership opportunities opening around the same window. D.R. Horton, through Hearthstone acting as land banker, purchased the final 232 residential lots at Lucero village on roughly 90 acres from Harvard Investments. The transaction closed September 3, 2026 at $32.712 million, or about $141,000 per lot, and was reported in September 2026 from property database Vizzda.

The planned product is one- and two-story homes ranging from approximately 1,300 to 2,400 square feet. That range matters for anyone comparing against resale, because it puts this neighborhood squarely in attainable-family-home territory rather than at the upper end of Estrella.

Two facts are easy to miss in the coverage. First, this is D.R. Horton's return to Estrella rather than a debut, and Lucero village itself has been selling homes from multiple builders for years. Second, the purchase completes residential lot sales within Lucero, which means there is no later, better phase to hold out for in that village. If you want to track Goodyear's development pipeline yourself, the city publishes its current planning applications in public review on an interactive map.

Is Goodyear a Buyer's Market Right Now?

Yes, and meaningfully so. The Cromford Market Index for Goodyear single-family resale sat at 76.1 as of September 16, 2026, well below the balanced reading of 100, with roughly 4.2 months of supply and homes taking a median of 37 days to reach first contract. Average sale price came in at 98.60% of list. Goodyear has also moved further toward buyers over the past quarter rather than tightening.

This is the part of the decision that the fall 2027 timeline actually collides with. A buyer's market is not a permanent condition, and it is the environment in which a resale purchase gets you the most: room to negotiate, time to inspect properly, sellers willing to discuss concessions, and no competition pressure forcing a rushed decision. None of that is guaranteed to still be there in late 2027.

At this stage, I help clients narrow their focus to what the extra year genuinely buys and genuinely costs, because both sides are real:

• A newer house: A fall 2027 D.R. Horton home at Lucero comes with current energy-efficiency standards and a builder warranty, which an eleven-year-old Goodyear resale does not.
• Lot selection: Buying into a new phase lets you choose the homesite rather than inherit one, and in Estrella that can mean orientation and view positioning you cannot negotiate for on a resale.
• Roughly a year of housing cost: Waiting means renting or staying put through late 2027, and that carrying cost is real money that does not build equity.
• Today's negotiating position: The Goodyear leverage described above is available now, on a resale, and is not a condition you can reserve for later.
• Unfinished-community living: An early buyer in a new phase lives alongside active construction, unfinished streetscapes, and landscaping that starts from dirt.
• Total move-in cost: A resale typically arrives with landscaping, window coverings, fans and often a pool already in place, while a base-plan new build hands those costs to you after closing.

For the same trade-off examined in a different Goodyear context, I have looked at what Solstice Foothills means for south Goodyear values, where the timeline gap between a headline and a deliverable home runs even longer.

New Build at Lucero Versus a Goodyear Resale: What Actually Differs

The two paths differ most in what you control and what you give up, and purchase price is the least interesting line on the list. Here is the comparison I build with buyers who are weighing an Estrella new build against an existing Goodyear home.

The contract line is the one that costs people money, and it is invisible on a model home tour. A resale in Estrella or elsewhere in Goodyear runs on a standardized Arizona document with a disclosure obligation on the seller and an inspection window with teeth. A new build at Lucero will run on D.R. Horton's paper, where the deposit structure, delay provisions, warranty terms and dispute language are the builder's to write. That is not a reason to avoid new construction. It is a reason to have someone read the agreement with you before you sign it rather than after. I walk every client through the purchase contract line by line before signing, over Zoom when schedules allow and by recorded walkthrough when they do not.

Who Should Actually Wait for Lucero

Waiting makes sense for a narrow group, and it is worth being honest about who is in it. If your timeline is genuinely flexible into late 2027 or beyond, if you are currently housed comfortably and cheaply, and if choosing your own homesite in Estrella matters more to you than anything a resale offers, then holding for D.R. Horton's Lucero neighborhood is a reasonable plan.

This is usually where I slow buyers down, because the flexible timeline is the piece people overestimate. A fall 2027 model opening is an expectation, not a commitment, and builder timelines in the West Valley move. Between model opening, contract, and construction, a buyer who signs early in that release is realistically living somewhere else well into 2028. If a lease renewal, a school year, or a household change lands inside that window, the plan collapses and the buyer ends up shopping resale anyway — just a year later and with less leverage than they have today.

For anyone in that flexible group, there is also a middle path worth knowing: Estrella currently offers new homes from several builders with model homes open to tour. Waiting for Lucero specifically is a preference for one builder's product, not the only route to a new home in Estrella.

How to Decide Between Lucero and an Estrella or Goodyear Resale

Start with your move-in date and work backward, because that single input resolves most of this decision. If you need to be in a home before mid-2027, the Lucero option is not actually on your menu and the comparison is between resale homes.

If your timeline is open, compare the two on total monthly carrying cost rather than purchase price — payment, taxes, HOA, insurance, and the post-closing costs a base-plan new build hands you. Then price in the year of rent or mortgage you would pay while waiting, and ask whether choosing the lot is worth that number to you. One more piece of mechanics: most builders require your agent to register you on your first model-home visit, so if there is any chance you tour Lucero in 2027, sort out representation before you walk in rather than at the front desk.

The same structural comparison runs through several West Valley communities at different buildout stages, and it may help to see it applied elsewhere — I have weighed a brand-new Teravalis home against an established Verrado resale in Buckeye, and a Saddleback new build against a Vistancia resale in north Peoria. For everyday-life context in the part of Goodyear where resale inventory is deepest, the retail build-out at Canyon Trails Towne Center on Cotton Lane covers what is already solved there. Goodyear's own development services department is the best public source for entitlement status on anything still coming.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will D.R. Horton's homes at Lucero in Estrella be available?
Model homes are expected to open in fall 2027, with homeownership opportunities anticipated around that window. Build time follows a signed contract, so realistic move-ins run later than the model opening.

How many lots did D.R. Horton buy at Lucero, and for how much?
D.R. Horton acquired the final 232 residential lots at Lucero village on roughly 90 acres for $32.712 million, about $141,000 per lot. The transaction closed September 3, 2026.

What size homes will D.R. Horton build at Lucero?
Plans call for one- and two-story homes ranging from approximately 1,300 to 2,400 square feet, which places the neighborhood in attainable family-home territory rather than at Estrella's upper end.

Can I buy a new home in Estrella before 2027?
Yes. Estrella currently offers new homes from several builders with model homes open to tour. Waiting for Lucero specifically is a preference for one builder's product, not the only path to a new Estrella home.

Is it a good time to buy a resale home in Goodyear?
Goodyear favors buyers right now. The Cromford Market Index for Goodyear single-family resale was 76.1 as of September 16, 2026, with roughly 4.2 months of supply and average sale price at 98.60% of list.

The Bottom Line

The Lucero headline announces a purchase, not an opening. D.R. Horton's models are expected in fall 2027, the village already sells homes from other builders today, and Goodyear resale is currently the friendliest market a buyer has seen there in years. Let your move-in date decide first: if it lands before mid-2027, the choice is among resale homes, and you get to make it with real negotiating room. If your timeline is genuinely open and choosing the homesite matters more than everything a finished home already includes, waiting is defensible — as long as you price the year of housing cost honestly and read whichever contract you end up signing before you sign it.

I'm Kasandra Chavez, REALTOR® and Team Lead of the Chavez Dream Home Team with Real Broker, serving the West and Northwest Valley of Greater Phoenix, Arizona, and recognized among the top 5% of real estate professionals in the Greater Phoenix area. If you're weighing a Lucero release against homes you could see this weekend, I'll build you the side-by-side on total monthly cost so you're comparing the same thing.